Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 746 · MDW → PHX
departs 4:35 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.