Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 781 · MDW → PHX
departs 9:10 AM CT · arrives 10:50 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.