Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 824 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

WN 824 · LAS → BHM

departs 9:00 AM PT · arrives 2:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BHM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 824 · LAS → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?