Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 855 · DAL → SMF
departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 1:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.48 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.