Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 938
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 938 · BWI → ORF
departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 12:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 3%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at ORF that day
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.