Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3413 LANDED 7:10 AM ET, ~5 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 3413 · CHS → IAD

took off 6:07 AM ET · landed 7:10 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at CHS that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from CHS are usually not late

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.21 in

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3413 · CHS → IAD

Odds over time