Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 3439 · EWR → ORF
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 41%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.