Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3470 · MKE → EWR
departs 6:14 AM CT · arrives 9:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.