Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3472 · EWR → CVG
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.