YX 3485 · EWR → XNA

took off 10:15 AM ET · expected to land 11:52 AM CT (scheduled 10:02 AM ET → 12:14 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to XNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

XNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3485 · EWR → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?