Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3496 · ORD → SAV
departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 9:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SAV that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAV (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.