YX 3498 · ORD → BNA

took off 12:34 PM CT · landed 1:40 PM CT (scheduled 12:39 PM CT → 2:30 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BNA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3498 · ORD → BNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to BNA?