Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3502 · IAD → PHL
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.