Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3514 LANDED 4:34 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 3514 · EWR → RDU

took off 3:19 PM ET · landed 4:34 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

RDU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3514 · EWR → RDU

Odds over time