Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 3580 · EWR → GRR
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into GRR at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.