Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3584 · EWR → GSP
departs 4:18 PM ET · arrives 6:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 19%
Thu 10/8 25%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.