YX 3597 · STL → EWR

took off 12:21 PM CT · landed 3:16 PM ET (scheduled 12:08 PM CT → 3:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3597 · STL → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?