Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 3609 · EWR → BOS
departs 3:47 PM ET · arrives 5:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,533 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.