Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 3616 · JAX → EWR
departs 4:43 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 3.92 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.