YX 3623 · YUL → EWR

departs 3:29 PM EDT · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3623 · YUL → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?