Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3642 · MEM → EWR
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 9:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
MEM is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MEM are usually not late
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.