Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3644 LANDED 11:00 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 3644 · EWR → DTW

took off 9:43 PM ET · landed 11:00 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 9pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DTW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3644 · EWR → DTW

Odds over time