Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3648 LANDED 11:53 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 3648 · YYZ → EWR

took off 10:50 AM EDT · landed 11:53 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↑ YYZ is busy at that time

↓ Other factors

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3648 · YYZ → EWR

Odds over time