Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3707
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 3707 · ORD → IND
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 74%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.