Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3713 · GSO → EWR
departs 2:28 PM ET · arrives 4:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at GSO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.