Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4338
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4338 · GSO → ORD
departs 7:01 PM ET · arrives 8:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.