YX 4338 · LGA → MSN

departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MSN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4338 · LGA → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?