Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4353 LANDED 5:41 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4353 · BGR → LGA

took off 4:27 PM ET · landed 5:41 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from BGR are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4353 · BGR → LGA

Odds over time