YX 4353 · LGA → BGR

took off 2:21 PM ET · landed 3:18 PM ET (scheduled 2:17 PM ET → 4:06 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BGR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BGR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BGR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4353 · LGA → BGR

Odds over time

How late did it get to BGR?