Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4358 LANDED 4:36 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4358 · LGA → ORF

took off 3:37 PM ET · landed 4:36 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORF that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4358 · LGA → ORF

Odds over time