YX 4362 · BOS → SDF

took off 10:21 AM ET · expected to land 12:26 PM ET (scheduled 10:01 AM ET → 12:43 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from BOS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4362 · BOS → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?