Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4374
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4374 · LGA → BOS
departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Thu 10/1 27%
Fri 10/2 64%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 35%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.