Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4381 · LGA → CHO
departs 1:16 PM ET · arrives 2:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CHO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at CHO that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CHO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.