Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4394
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4394 · CMH → LGA
departs 11:50 AM ET · arrives 1:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 17%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.