Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4398
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4398 · LGA → CMH
departs 9:20 AM ET · arrives 11:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.