YX 4402 · ORD → DSM

departs 10:23 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4402 · ORD → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?