YX 4404 · LGA → ILM

took off 3:43 PM ET · landed 5:12 PM ET (scheduled 3:46 PM ET → 5:47 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ILM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ILM (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4404 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time

How late did it get to ILM?