Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4411 · BNA → LGA
departs 6:32 AM CT · arrives 10:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.17 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.