Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4415 · DTW → LGA
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.