Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4426 LANDED 2:39 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

YX 4426 · LGA → OKC

took off 12:24 PM ET · landed 2:39 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

OKC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4426 · LGA → OKC

Odds over time