tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4428 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

YX 4428 · LGA → ILM

departs 9:29 AM ET · arrives 11:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
10% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 4.5d 2d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ILM?

  1. On time or early
    90%
  2. 15–30 min late
    4%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    4%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    1%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    <1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.