YX 4468 · ORD → MSY

took off 9:06 AM CT · landed 11:01 AM CT (scheduled 8:32 AM CT → 11:05 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSY?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4468 · ORD → MSY

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSY?