Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4483 LANDED 8:15 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

YX 4483 · ILM → LGA

took off 7:04 AM ET · landed 8:15 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↓ 7am departures from ILM are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4483 · ILM → LGA

Odds over time