YX 4500 · YHZ → LGA

took off 3:28 PM ADT · landed 4:27 PM ET (scheduled 2:59 PM ADT → 4:18 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YHZ

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

YHZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4500 · YHZ → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?