Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4502 · LGA → RIC
departs 9:50 AM ET · arrives 11:21 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RIC that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.