YX 4519 · ORD → ORF

took off 9:58 PM CT · landed 12:31 AM ET (scheduled 8:30 PM CT → 11:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORF that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4519 · ORD → ORF

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORF?