Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4524 · XNA → LGA
departs 2:57 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 39%
Mon 10/5 41%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
XNA is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.