YX 4534 · LGA → GSP

departs 3:17 PM ET · arrives 5:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GSP that day

↑ Arrivals into GSP at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

GSP (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4534 · LGA → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?