Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4545
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4545 · PHL → ACK
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ACK that day
↑
2pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ACK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.