Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4566 · PNS → LGA
departs 11:54 AM CT · arrives 3:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.93 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.